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Trends

A general direction or tendency which can be analyzed to render patterns over  time. 

Trends can take on different patterns, such as:

  • Linear
  • Polynomial
  • Exponential
  • Logarithmic, and 
  • Moving averages.  

Trends can be associated with different matters:


Trend Directions
  • Negative Upward Trend - An upward trend represents a negative outcome for the organization and a deterioration in service delivery performance
  • Positive Upward Trend - An upward trend represents a positive outcome for the organization and an improvement in service delivery performance
  • Negative Downward Trend - A downward trend represents a negative outcome for the organization and a deterioration in service delivery performance
  • Positive Downward Trend - A downward trend represents a positive outcome for the organization and an improvement in service delivery performance
  • Stable Trend - Service delivery performance will remain stable


Types of Trends

      A. E
xternal Trends
  • Complexity in regulation - New legislation, e.g. Emissions standards or further accessibility requirements can potentially result in the existing organization assets not being able to meet the new LOS. To address this, the organization has in place processes to monitor when and how future legislation can impact the asset base and, where possible, new assets are ‘future proofed’ where their design and construction takes into account the potential impact of any new legislation. However regardless of the processes that are in place to deal with new legislation, there can be a lag between new legislation coming into effect and the time it takes the organization to become fully compliant. The time to become fully compliant would be agreed with the relevant legislative body.
  • Complexity in growth forecasts - The timing and scale of development across the organization, which can sometimes be difficult to predict or plan, varies in accordance with market demands and the organization’s own approval processes. This has the potential to impact on both financial and operational performance indicators.
  • Expectations - Societal and political influences will continue to shape the organization’s strategy and priorities. Social trends have the potential to impact on LOS delivered by the organization, as people increasingly want more information and more dialogue, and this could be with regard to the type and quality of service delivered by the organization. Also, residents will likely expect the organization to use a broader range of communication approaches including social media to connect the organization and its residents, regarding service levels.
      B.  Internal Trends
  • Aging infrastructure - The org, while having a relatively young asset base, does still have a number of older facilities in its portfolio. As these assets further deteriorate, there is a risk that levels of service may decline. However, the adoption of asset management practices by the Town will enable cost-effective and timely maintenance and rehabilitation activities (see Section 5.0 – Asset Management Strategy) that will go some way in mitigating this risk.
  • Loss of qualified or certified operations staff- The org has an aging workforce and as staff retire, there is a risk that their knowledge is lost to the organization. This can result in either inefficient working as staff will, initially, take additional time to carry out tasks or this can result in a declining LOS, as asset failures may not be prevented or the response to an asset failure may not be dealt with as promptly as it had previously. To address this, the organization continues to focus on training and documentation of work practices to help mitigate this risk.
Trend line for a data set
Fig. Trend line for a data set.
See also:


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