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Modal Year
The year which has the largest number of retirements of any year in the existence of an asset group. 

It is therefore the critical year on a probability distribution.



Attributes
Listed below are some of the key attributes associated with the modal year
  • It is the year in which failure is more realistically forecast to occur.
  • The confidence interval is highest for failure in the modal year.


Analysis
Listed below are some concepts associated with the analysis of the modal year
Some of the key statistical elements of an asset survivor curve
Fig. Some of the key statistical elements of an asset survivor curve.


Bell curve indicating the percentage of performers along the probability distribution.   Three performance classes along a right-modal survivor curve. Fig. Left: Performance along a symmetrical curve; and Right: Three performance classes along a right-modal survivor curve.


Probability distribution curve indicating the early start year at the beginning of the curve.
Fig. Probability distribution curve indicating the critical year (or modal year) at the peak of a left-modal curve.


Modal year at the peak of a negatively skewed probability distribution
Fig. Modal year at the peak of a negatively skewed probability distribution.

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