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Critical Year


This term has two meanings: 1. Probability Distribution The year in which the probability of the renewal of an asset is deemed to be highest (ie., probability of failure PoF). The confidence interval is greatest. Also sometimes referred to as the "modal year". For example:
2. Capital Load Distribution Any
year over the planning
horizon
during which there are significant renewal expenditures. These years
appear as peaks in a bar chart or line graph showing the reserve
expenditures over time. For example:

Fig. Criical year is sometimes defined as the point along a deterioration curve where asset replacement must take place in order to avoid unacceptable risk. Fig. Critical year when probability of renewal is greatest. Fig. Critical years with significant renewal expenses. Fig. Survivor curve with the point of functional failure ("F") at the modal year (critical year). 

See also:

Fig. Critical years on a planning horizon 
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